The Most Important Swing States to Watch on Election Night, Ranked
Playing with the FiveThirtyEight interactive map simulator.
It’s the evening of November 3, 2020 — or, a day or week after — and the election returns are trickling in. When states are called for one candidate or another, how can you tell if that’s good or bad news for the Biden campaign?
Poll aggregator and electoral statistical analysis hub FiveThirtyEight released their interactive map simulator that lets you explore the various ways Biden or Trump can draw a path to victory. We played around with it this morning to give some insight as to how the percentages change as certain swing states are called for one candidate or another, and we’ve ranked how Biden’s odds of winning increase or decrease certain states go one way or another. Below, we’ve ranked how the numbers shift.
Where the Race Currently Stands
FiveThirtyEight currently estimates Joe Biden — up 10+ percentage points nationally, yet heavily drawing upon state-level polling in their analysis — with an 88% chance of winning the Electoral College count. That’s a decent lead, yet not airtight.
Naturally, given the stakes of this election and wide disparity between what a second Trump term and a first Biden term…
