So, you’re right. This has been well documented. You can google “confidence vs talent at work” and see all kinds of examples of this. Confidence wins out over talent. However, a lot of the confidence that you see outwardly displayed is usually arrogance. It’s a bit of a gendered phenomenon, too, as I’m sure you’ve seen the aphorism “approach life with all the confidence of a mediocre white man” at some point in your life.
Humility and confidence aren’t on the same scale. True humility just means seeing yourself as an equal and keeping an open mind. The more you bond with others and the more you learn through humility, the more confident you become, because you’re setting yourself up for incremental failure and therefore improvement. That’s my back-of-the-envelope take, anyway.